Kyle Lowry and the Raptors Can't Waste More Time Adjusting to Milwaukee's Game Plan

The Toronto Raptors knew what was coming.

They had to, because the Milwaukee Bucks have been mostly unflinching in their defensive approach since Jason Kidd took over as head coach before the 2014-15 season. Prior to that, the Raptors got to know the defense orchestrated by Kidd and Sean Sweeney intimately over seven games, when the pair led the Brooklyn Nets to a tight series victory over the upstart Raptors. The Bucks, blessed with ludicrous length, offered little reason to shift the system.

Milwaukee was going to trap aggressively, blitzing the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll, overloading the strong side of the floor, and showing double-teams on post-ups and isolations. There are cracks to be exploited, with that hyper-aggression bringing with it the trade-off of scattered defensive rebounding, the need for everyone to stay on a string, and shots available from long range and at the rim when breakdowns occurred. The Bucks are dangerous on defense, but they were also middling in terms of efficiency, ranking 19th, surrendering 106.4 points per-100 possessions.

Again, the Raptors should have known what was coming, and they copped to as much.

"Not really. We expected it," head coach Dwane Casey said after the game when asked if Milwaukee's length surprised them. "Our spacing, how we were attacking the pick and roll, our passes, we expected. Now, a couple times they blocked a shot at the rim, that's gonna happen."

There's little excuse, then, for just how unprepared they looked. In Saturday's Game 1, they were woeful on the offensive end, particularly outside of the efforts of Serge Ibaka and the first-half performance of DeMar DeRozan. The Bucks used their length almost entirely as expected, and it seemed to frustrate and confuse the Raptors' attack.

Toronto shot 20 percent in the second half, mustering just 31 points on 45 possessions (and 94.3 points per-100 possessions on the night), a shaky mark that just won't stand. They managed only four points in the paint in the second half, a laughably low total that underscores their aversion to attacking Milwaukee's length as the game wore on.

At the root of a lot of this was Kyle Lowry, who had yet another terrible Game 1, shooting 2-of-11 for four points. Not only did Lowry shoot poorly, but unlike last year's postseason when he made a major impact as a playmaker and defender, he struggled to navigate Milwaukee's length, and that seemed to make him a little hesitant even when he did find his way into the paint.

(Thon Maker's ability to stay with Lowry from the perimeter to the rim, especially in the third quarter, was pretty incredible to watch.)

Over six Game 1s as a Raptor, Lowry has now shot 21-of-79, good for 26.6 percent. He owns the lowest postseason field-goal percentage (37.9) among active players with at least 500 field-goal attempts. And even Saturday, he created zero assists on 10 drives, shooting 0-of-3. During the season, he shot 55.3 percent and averaged 1.3 assists on 10.2 drives. No matter who is in the way, the Raptors—one of the most drive-heavy teams in the league for years now—need those forays into traffic to produce offense, whether it's through shots or passes.

At practice on Sunday, Lowry seemed perturbed by the talk that he should be more aggressive rather than making what he thought were the right passes.

"Every time I did a screen, I had four arms around me. Put it this way: I guess I'mma have to force shots," Lowry said. "My teammates want me to be more aggressive, so I'mma have to force some more shots.

"I felt like I made the right passes [Saturday], but my teammates—I guess I'll be forcing more shots, put it that way."

That's a poor way to word things, to be sure, but Casey backed up that the Raptors want Lowry to be more aggressive. The Bucks certainly aren't going to get any more conservative so long as things are working, and so the Raptors will lean on Lowry to create, whether that means pulling up or beating traps.

"Being aggressive. Being aggressive.," Casey repeated. "Both. Taking the shots when he has them, turning the corner, being aggressive."

Again, Lowry didn't think he made poor decisions passing, and his 11 potential assists weren't far off his season average of 12.7. Some of this is just teammates missing shots, as the team's 5-of-23 (5-of-15 excluding the two All-Stars) mark on threes would suggest. For the game, the team was 1-of-15 on shots outside of 10 feet classified with "tight" or "very tight" defenders. That's a remarkably poor mark, even against a long team like Milwaukee, and especially for a club that has noted shot-makers like Lowry and DeRozan.

The ball-handler can do better still. The Raptors only occasionally recognized the opportunity to make smart passes out of traps on Saturday. DeRozan did a decent job, but Lowry was guilty of over-dribbling looking for a seam, and there were a handful of occasions on which a release valve went ignored or was identified too late.

Even when they were recognized, there's an onus to execute. Jonas Valanciunas isn't particularly adept at exploiting 4-on-3 scenarios unless it's as a roller to the rim, and he had a bad turnover on a kick to the corner. Ibaka isn't an expert passer, though the threat he poses has a noticeable impact on the help defense. And the Raptors' weak-side wings—they often stacked Lowry and DeRozan on the same side of the floor in order to prevent the Bucks from helping as much on the strong side—aren't elite playmakers.

The Raptors will need those role players to take advantage of their chances.

"There were assist opportunities there," Casey said when asked about trying to shift to a more democratic approach to assisted baskets (the Raptors tallied just 15 dimes). "The roller was open, the swing pass to the next pass, at the end of the day, those guys gotta make a play, make a shot."

There were other issues, too, of course. Milwaukee scored a bit more effectively than they do on average, thanks in part to Toronto's misses and lack of offensive rebounds facilitating the Bucks' transition game. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton were able to seek out mismatches against smaller Raptor lineups. Even just the general lip-service to effort and energy bears out, with the Bucks grabbing nine loose balls to Toronto's four and recording more deflections and charges drawn.

It's the offense that stands out most, though, in the degree to which it was ineffective and the degree to which Toronto seemed unprepared. Logically, the Bucks' defense should be one that can be figured out and better exploited with more repetitions, the seams presented by unwavering aggression easier to identify. The Raptors have to hope that's the case, because they're not going anywhere scoring at this rate, or with Lowry playing this poorly.

And yes, it's about more than just forcing shots.