The March to St Petersburg: Examining New Zealand’s Draw for the 2017 Confederations Cup in Russia

When Australia left the Oceania Football Confederation (OFC) for Asia on January 1, 2006, it created a US$1.7 million tap-in for their neighbours in New Zealand.

Sitting in the back of that empty net was a virtual automatic Confederations Cup spot every four years. Sure, the All Whites would have to beat the likes of Tahiti and New Caledonia in the OFC Nations Cup along the way, but come on. Money for jam.

That was case in South Africa in 2009 where the All Whites played the hosts, Spain and Iraq in FIFA's annual World Cup warm-up tournament.

New Zealand manager Anthony Hudson reacting to the All Whites' Confederations Cup draw in Russia. Source: Youtube.

New Zealand even came away with a 0-0 draw against Iraq; a result you could argue formed the foundation of Ricki Herbert's stoically defensive, ultimate underdog World Cup campaign for the All Whites the following year.

The Kiwis fluffed the big money tap-in in 2012, embarrassingly losing in that year's OFC Nations Cup semis to New Caledonia. The 2-0 defeat is arguably the lowest moment in New Zealand football history.

The All Whites are back this year, however. By beating Papua New Guinea on penalties in Port Moresby in June (really?!), New Zealand earned their path to Russia, who will host the Confederations Cup next June.

The draw took place over the weekend, with the Kiwis getting the hosts, Mexico and Portugal. Their match against Russia, in St Petersburg on June 17, will be the tournament's opening match. Australia will compete in the other pool, against Germany, Chile and the winner of next year's African Nations Cup.

Official: The draw for the 2017 Confederations Cup, which lasts from June 17th to July 2nd: Portugal will face Russia, New Zealand & Mexico. pic.twitter.com/RoEkyOBRxz
— Jan Hagen (@PortuBall) November 27, 2016

Despite its current world ranking of 110, up six places since mid-October, New Zealand has been one of the most noticeably improving international nations since they snuck past PNG in June. Much of that is down to manager Anthony Hudson - and star defender Winston Reid.

Hudson – son of former Chelsea and Stoke midfielder Alan - has slowly instilled a tactical pragmatism to the New Zealand side that was largely absent during the Herbert era.

The results of the Englishman's weaving of youth (players like Moses Dyer, Monty Patterson and Liam Graham) and experience (veterans such as Chris Wood, Andrew Durante and Michael McGlinchey) has bore fruit for New Zealand this year.

The All Whites have only lost one of their last eleven under Hudson; a 2-1 defeat against Mexico in Nashville last month.

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That result, wildly impressive for a minnow like New Zealand, illustrates Reid's immense value. The West ham defender gives the All Whites a defensive resolve and level of organization it simply lacks in his absence. The 1-1 draw with the United States in Washington DC, three days after the Nashville game, proved that.

So what could happen in Russia next year? The crew here at VICE Sports AUNZ had a closer look.

Since the 2014 World Cup qualifying wrapped up (Russia finished top of Pool F, ahead of Portugal), the Russians have underwhelmed internationally.

They bombed at the World Cup in Brazil and finished bottom of their group at the Euros in France last year; even managing a 2-1 loss to Slovakia.

Former Soviet Union goalkeeper Stanislav Cherchesov took over the national reigns in August, with the stated goal of making the semi-finals of the 2018 World Cup, at home.

According to Futbolgrad.com, Cherchesov usually starts well as a coach before fading away.

"His sides tend to peak during his first year, then he leaves or gets sacked in the second," contributor Saul Pope wrote. "If things go according to form, that means Russia will have a good 2017 Confederations Cup before the problems start."

Since Cherchesov took over, Russia have played five friendlies with two wins, two losses and a draw. Surprisingly, the defeats came to Costa Rica and Qatar – results that will encourage the underdog Kiwis.

After being ruled out of this year's Euros with a broken foot, star CSKA Moscow midfielder Alan Dzagoev will be back in the Russia team next June with a point to prove – and will likely be the side's main attacking weapon.

If Reid is fit and healthy, and Ipswich defender Tommy Smith is back in Kiwi colours, New Zealand may be primed to frustrate the Russians – who you know will be under a brutal amount of pressure. This could quite easily be a 0-0 draw, which Hudson would take in a heartbeat.

FAR TOO EARLY SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 Russia

Of all the top tier international teams, New Zealand has seen the most of Mexico over recent years.

Including the All Whites 2-1 defeat to Mexico in Nashville last month, the two sides have met five times since 2010 with the Central Americans winning each encounter handily.

The 5-1 and 4-2 demo jobs Mexico did on New Zealand in their intercontinental World Cup qualifiers in 2014 mark a recent low-water mark for the Kiwis, which saw Ricki Herbert get the boot.

Things have been clearly improving of late, as evidenced by the match in Nashville. The All Whites were their opponents equal for all 90 minutes, with fleet-footed forwards Marco Rojas and Kosta Barbarouses providing constant harassment for the Mexicans.

Mexico's constant thread under Juan Carlos Osorio has been a shaky defensive line, and an inconsistent ability to create chances in front of goal.

Both were certainly the case against New Zealand last month, though Mexico will almost certainly welcome back former Manchester United and Real Madrid striker Javier Hernandez into the side for Sochi next year to combine with Giovanni dos Santos up front.

Again, the role of Reid is key for New Zealand here. Given the strong performance against Mexico in Nashville, Hudson will undoubtedly be targeting this match more than the others for a win.

Barring injuries, the All Whites attacking line will be improved too. PEC Zwolle forward Ryan Thomas missed the Nashville game, but should be back in the mix in Russia. Whatever the result, expect this to be the All Whites most entertaining performance in Russia.

FAR TOO EARLY SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 New Zealand.

To be perfectly honest, New Zealand playing Portugal at football is like the All Blacks playing, say, Tonga in rugby.

You know there'll likely be a bit of grit from the underdogs to start with, but the result is already a foregone conclusion – and merely a matter of keeping the score line as low as possible.

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Headlined by Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal boost the likes ex-United striker Nani, Bayern Munich fast rising star Renato Sanches and Barcelona midfielder Andre Gomes. Tumeke, bro.

Portugal are well-organised from back to the front, with no real flaws for the Kiwis to expose. No much point writing much else other than it will be cool seeing Kiwis taking on Ronaldo.

FAR TOO EARLY SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 Portugal.