Friday Film Room Week 3: Allen Robinson

Jacksonville Jaguars receiver Allen Robinson got tons of affection from draftniks in 2014 when he was coming out of Penn St.: they looked at his size (6'3", 215 lbs.) and raw skills (outrageous vertical and broad jumps) and saw a Dez Bryant clone. He also got love from fantasy experts this summer, when he became a sleeper darling, and he got love during the preseason, when the Jags started to look like they might field a competent offense.

But I wasn't completely on board. I had nothing against Robinson; I was simply frightened of his quarterback. Blake Bortles' rookie year was a disaster, and my concern was that Bortles wouldn't be able to support any weapons consistently enough for them to become fantasy starters. In Week 1, that was certainly still the case:

This play gives you a glimpse of what's plagued Bortles for a year. The Panthers are giving him a Cover-2, man-under look, and Bortles knows he has Rashad Greene running a little delayed stop behind Robinson's deep out. Bortles gives a peek to the right—it's impossible to say if his first read is really over there, or if he's just trying to manipulate the safeties with his eyes—and then he flings it wildly to his left. Except he hasn't instinctively understood that the Panthers aren't playing strict man on that side; the defensive backs swap receivers out of their original look and corner Bene' Benwikere jumps Greene's route. If Bortles hadn't thrown an inaccurate pass (small blessings!), Benwikere might've had a pick-six. (For extra credit, take a look at Allen Hurns wide open at the bottom of the screen, jumping around in frustration.) This mistake illustrates what's been wrong with Bortles. He's failed to read defenses correctly or quickly enough, he's made bad decisions, and his throwing accuracy has been awful.

But in Week 2 against the Dolphins, Bortles played the best game of his pro career, and suddenly Robinson—who'd never had more than 82 yards receiving in a game and who's scored two touchdowns in his entire career—looked unstoppable: six grabs for 155 yards and two TDs. And with that, all the Allen Robinson love started to feel justified.

To be fair, "the best game of Blake Bortles' career" is a pretty low bar. The young quarterback didn't toss any interceptions, only the fourth time in 16 career starts he hasn't thrown a pick. And for the most part, his successful strategy consisted simply of trusting the correct receiver:

Bortles probably shouldn't throw this ball. Robinson isn't exact double-covered, but there's a deep safety in addition to the corner shadowing Robinson, and Bortles takes a long time to make his throw, plus hoists it pretty high in the air. The safety (Walt Aikens) makes a pretty indifferent break on the pass and is late getting over, but Robinson renders the whole thing moot by using terrific body control and hands to snatch the ball out of danger for a 36-yard gain. Robinson had another long play Sunday where he was absolutely blanketed by corner Brice McClain but just took the ball out of the sky before McClain could get his arms up. I'm not saying Bortles did anything particularly wrong in either case, but I am saying Robinson's freak talent made sure a bad play didn't happen.

I've spent a lot of time here looking at Robinson through the lens of his QB, and rightly so. But it helps when a big young receiver can also make plays like this:

That's pretty awesome, and it comes in handy when Bortles goes through stretches in which he can't hit the broad side of a barn. We're getting the sense that all the talk about Robinson's amazing raw ability is now coming to fruition, and he's got a chance to be a budding young superstar. It's fun when you see talent begin to manifest.

But can you trust him for fantasy? Unfortunately, the answer to that question necessarily comes back to Bortles. Yes, of course, there have been many WRs who've been consistent fantasy starters even in situations where their quarterbacks weren't particularly good. But there's "not particularly good" and then there's what Bortles has done in his NFL career. In '14, Robinson regularly caught five or six passes for 60 or 70 yards, but he never really busted out because Bortles wouldn't let him.

After just one game in which Bortles played well (but during which his "best" throws were essentially jump balls with which Robinson won), I can't elevate this passing situation out of the NFL's cellar. I'm perfectly fine if you want to start Robinson in Week 3 against the Patriots; he's #21 in my WR ranks this week in a field that's got injured several stars who'd normally be above him. But we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves, and we shouldn't go trading the farm to get Robinson because we hear about his raw ability and we love his Week 2 highlights so much. There's a nice story potentially brewing in Jacksonville for Robinson, but it very much depends on Blake Bortles not stinking.

Christopher Harris is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner. He hosts the Harris Football Podcast every weekday. Find it on iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn and most other podcast apps, as well as at www.HarrisFootball.com.