Five NFL Underdogs Who May Surprise You

Every NFL season is full of upheaval and chaos. Playoff teams become also-rans, also-rans become playoff teams, unheralded nobodies become superstars, and superstars find their powers have abandoned them. Here are five teams whose fortunes could change for the better this season, from presumptive doormats that might become upstarts to odds-on contenders who could finally cash in.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This time last year, I fancied the Buccaneers a sleeper team; they went on to improve from a league-worst 2-12 record to a competitive 6-10 finish. Jameis Winston's rookie campaign was sneakily very good, and he seems primed to take a huge Year-One-to-Year-Two leap à la fellow No. 1 overall pick Peyton Manning, who jumped from a passer rating of 71.2 to 90.7 in 1998-99.

The Bucs have what might be the league's most effective one-two tailback punch in Doug Martin and Charles Sims, an array of tall, fast pass-catchers, and a very young offensive line ready to mature together. There's every reason to believe they can vault last year's 20th-ranked scoring offense into the top third of the league this season.

On the other side of the ball, first-round cornerback Vernon Hargreaves has been an insatiable ball hawk this preseason, and second-round pass-rusher Noah Spence is exactly what the Bucs' defense has most sorely lacked over recent years. A unit that allowed an average of 26.1 points per game last year won't need to be great to be much, much better in 2016.

Chicago Bears

The Bears play in a brutal division, and quarterback Jay Cutler's picture appears next to the word "enigmatic" in the NFL Dictionary, but head coach John Fox's past teams all have taken a huge leap in his second year. His Carolina Panthers improved from 7-9 to 11-5 in their second season, and his Denver Broncos went from 8-8 to 13-3. The Bears finished 6-10 last season. Not only would a ten-win year fit the pattern—it would put them right in the NFC Wild Card mix.

And there's reason to think they can do it. Wide receiver Alshon Jeffery is finally healthy, and Kevin White, the 2015 No. 7 overall pick who boasts terrifying height/weight/speed numbers, is finally ready to line up across from him. Tailback Jeremy Langford looks ready to replace the departed Matt Forte. With the addition of Pro Bowl guard Josh Sitton, who was shockingly cut by the Green Bay Packers on the eve of the season, Cutler is working with as good as a supporting cast as he's ever had.

On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has exciting new talent to work with at every level of the defense. The rebuilt linebacking corps of Danny Trevathan, Jerrell Freeman, Lamarr Houston, Willie Young, and PUP-listed Pernell McPhee might be one of the league's best.

Houston Texans

OK, OK, I hear you: It's kind of ridiculous to call a defending division champion an "underdog." But with the Indianapolis Colts going all-in on rehabbed quarterback Andrew Luck in an attempt to win now and the perennial AFC South doormat Jacksonville Jaguars looking maybe much improved (more on that in a bit), the Texans will have to be significantly better just to hold steady.

That said, there's every reason to believe they will be. A deep, dynamic young receiver corps led by DeAndre Hopkins and Jaelen Strong got significantly reinforced by third-round pick Braxton Miller, who looked dominant out of the slot in the preseason (despite converting to wideout just one calendar year ago). Free-agent tailback Lamar Miller appears set to keep the offense on schedule, too—great news for free-agent quarterback Brock Osweiler, who shredded the vaunted Arizona Cardinals defense in the all-important third preseason game.

Though Vegas likes the Texans to revert to "not quite as good as the Colts and nowhere near good enough to win an AFC Wild Card" status, per OddsShark.com, the on-schedule return of All Pro defensive end J.J. Watt, who was recovering from back surgery in the offseason, gives the Texans every chance not only to repeat as the nine-win champions of a backwater division but to push for double-digit wins and scare people in the postseason.

New Orleans Saints

As a professional football analyst, I can't just tell you I have a hunch about the Saints this year.

But man, I have a hunch about the Saints this year.

Maybe it's the massive hype wave building up behind second-round rookie receiver Michael Thomas. Maybe it's the emphatic re-signing of center Max Unger, which cemented the Saints as unquestioned winners of last year's Unger/Jimmy Graham trade.

Mostly, though, it's Jenny Vrentas' in-depth feature on Rex and Rob Ryan from the spring, which revealed what a complete disaster the Saints' defense was last year. While attempting to switch schemes under Rob Ryan's nose, the Saints allowed a revolting 476 points—by far the most in the league, and the 11st most in NFL history, per Pro Football Reference.

With free-agent Nick Fairley looking like a wrecking ball in preseason, along with the late addition of pass-rusher Paul Kruger, the Saints' defensive line seems much improved. Add second-round pick Vonn Bell and free-agent returnee Roman Harper to the starting safety pair of Jairus Byrd and Kenny Vaccaro, and defensive coordinator Dennis Allen will finally be able to draw up a coherent game plan and stick with it.

The Saints won't be great on defense—but they finished eighth in scoring offense last year, and seem primed to be even better on that side of the ball in 2016. The defense will only have to improve from "historically wretched" to "basically mediocre" in order for the Saints to stay on the Panthers' heels.

New York Jets

They won ten games last year. They brought everybody back, and added Matt Forte. They added a ton of youth, talent, and speed to a linebacking corps that desperately needed it. They coped with the sudden retirement of their left tackle by bringing in a guy who, when healthy, has always been significantly better.

Yes, the Jets royally bungled the quarterback situation and, yes, that made them look silly. But this Jets team can take advantage of the New England Patriots being vulnerable for the early part of the season, and the struggles of the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins. They should match, if not improve on, last year's win total. Even if they don't dethrone the Pats, this squad has no excuse not to at least make the playoffs.

*Honorable Mention: Detroit Lions*

Conventional wisdom seems to have taken the Lions' 2015 record (7-9), subtracted four wins for the loss of Calvin Johnson and declared them doormats. But practically the same squad went 11-5 in 2014, and finished last season on a 6-2 tear after promoting Jim Bob Cooter to offensive coordinator.

Matthew Stafford played the best football of his life down that stretch, and now has more overall offensive talent around him (and in front of him) than ever before. Factor in the return of DeAndre Levy, rejuvenation of Haloti Ngata, and progression of young stars, and the Lions are surely better than many give them credit for—even if they may still finish fourth in what looks like a stacked NFC North.

*Not-Honorable Mention: Jacksonville Jaguars*

Everyone flipped out about the Jags' offseason, and rightfully so. Besides adding prize free-agent tackle Malik Jackson and 2015 "redshirt" first-round end Dante Fowler Jr. to their defensive line, Jacksonville also restocked their back seven with linebacker Myles Jack, cornerbacks Patrick Ramsey and Prince Amukamara, and safety Tashaun Gipson. Add in underrated former New York Jets tailback Chris Ivory to balance out the passing attack, and voila! Instant contender.

Except, of course, the offensive line is still full of holes, Ramsey is a raw 'tweener with a lot to learn, Jack is a rookie coming off a major injury, and we have no idea if Fowler is any good. Jacksonville's roster has so many questions with just one answer; if just one or two links in the chain of "ifs" fails, this team won't be ready to take the next step many are projecting.

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