Xi Jinping in Russia: What China Really Wants From Putin

Chinese leader Xi Jinping landed in Moscow on Monday for a high-profile meeting with his Russian counterpart President Vladimir Putin, with whom he has upheld a “no-limits” partnership despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

But if all goes his way, Xi is hoping he’ll leave the Russian capital known not as a friend of an alleged war criminal, but something more noble: an international peacemaker.

The three-day visit came after Beijing proposed a peace plan last month, the first indication that China is seeking to take an active role in mediating the war in Ukraine. The visit is also expected to be followed by a virtual call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksyy, in their first conversation since the conflict started.

But experts say the talks are unlikely to result in a breakthrough on the Ukraine war, which is in its second year. “I would not put too high hopes for a deal to come up from the trip,” Mortiz Rudolf, a fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center, told VICE World News. 

While Beijing recently scored a major diplomatic win by brokering a surprise detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Rudolf said Beijing lacked experience facilitating a peace process of this scale. China’s closeness with Russia also made it a poor choice as mediator, he said, citing its strategic partnership and economic backing of Moscow during the war. Western countries, particularly the U.S., have expressed skepticism of the political settlement China has suggested. 

But China is “reserving a seat at the table” because it wants to benefit from the post-war reconstruction of the region and the shaping of a new international order, he said.

Beleaguered by sanctions and isolated internationally, Russia has become a junior partner to China in an increasingly unequal relationship, but it’s still an irreplaceable strategic ally. Moscow remains a crucial source of energy imports and military technology for Beijing, which has bought large quantities of discounted Russian oil and held joint military exercises with the Russian military in the East China Sea as well as the Indian Ocean. They’re also usually on the same page when it comes to key strategic issues being discussed within international organizations such as the U.N.

More importantly, the two countries are united by a common enemy. “Russia’s really, for China, the only full spectrum partner in what it understands as a wider struggle with not just the United States, but the West in general,” said Andrew Small, a senior fellow at the Washington-based think tank German Marshall Fund. 

This overarching threat was laid out by Xi during China’s recent annual parliamentary meeting, where he took a rare direct aim at the U.S. for leading what he called a campaign to suppress the country’s rise.

With this long-term goal in mind, China has withstood international pressure to cut ties with Russia and continued deepening bilateral relations over the past year. It helped prop up Russia’s sanctions-hit economy by filling its shelves with goods and financing infrastructure projects. Bilateral trade rose to a record figure in 2022 and surged in double-digits earlier this year. Although China stopped short of supplying arms and ammunition to Russia, customs data showed it sold “hunting rifles,” body armor, and fighter-jet and drone parts—“dual-use equipment” that has both civilian and military applications.

“Even if Russia is weakened and in an impaired state coming out of the war, there is simply no other partner that offers something comparable to what Russia does,” Small said. As a result, Xi will be treading carefully in the upcoming meeting to ensure China doesn’t step out of line with Russia because the relationship is of too much value to take these risks, he added.

Xi has set the tone of the visit by describing it as “a journey of friendship, cooperation and peace” in a signed article in Russian outlets on Monday. “I am confident the visit will be fruitful and give new momentum to the healthy and stable development of Chinese-Russian relations,” Xi told reporters as he landed at Moscow’s Vnukovo International Airport on Monday afternoon. 

He was greeted by Russia’s deputy prime minister Dmitry Chernyshenko and a military brass band upon arrival. 

China also appears unaffected by the optics of rubbing shoulders with an alleged war criminal, despite the arrest warrant the International Criminal Court in the Hague issued for Putin on Friday over the alleged unlawful deportation of children from occupied areas of Ukraine to Russia. The Chinese foreign ministry brushed off concerns on Monday and urged the court to uphold “an objective and impartial stance” and “avoid politicization and double standards.”

Meanwhile, Putin thanked China for its “balanced line” on the Ukraine crisis. “We welcome China’s willingness to play a constructive role in resolving the crisis,” he wrote in an article for a Chinese newspaper. “Exhaustive explanations will be given by President Putin, so that [Chinese] President Xi Jinping can get a first-hand view of the current situation from the Russian side,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday ahead of Xi’s arrival. 

Zelenskyy, who has repeatedly sought direct talks with Xi to no avail, also welcomed the dialogue. But Ukraine is eyeing the events with caution. Reiterating the country’s stance, Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, stressed on Monday that any peace plan must be predicated on the withdrawal of Russian troops to “restore [Ukraine’s] sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity.”

Small said there still remains a “rabbit in the hat” possibility that Russia makes a concession on paper, such as agreeing to a ceasefire proposal, to justify the visit. 

Depending on the outcome, this could be a turning point for China, which is attempting to play a significant role in solving a conflict on European soil for the first time. 

“Xi gets from this a lot of international prestige–a key goal for the People’s Republic of China—and an opportunity to emerge as a global political heavyweight,” Rudolf said. 

Follow Rachel Cheung on Twitter and Instagram.