It's Time for Bubble Teams to Tank Because the Playoff Race Is All but Over

This article originally appeared on VICE Sports Canada.

I was sitting in the media workroom at Prudential Center on Sunday. The Penguins were bludgeoning the Devils, 6-1, with just a couple minutes remaining. The loss would leave the Devils, who traded leading scorer Lee Stempniak at the deadline for picks, six points behind the Red Wings, who had two games in hand, for the final playoff spot in the East.

Yet there were the Devils' TV announcers earnestly talking about playoff chances, the distance New Jersey needs to cover to catch the Red Wings and the importance of an upcoming road trip. It was incredible, the sort of propaganda that you'd think no one could believe.

All teams in the Devils' position at this time of year engage in it but it's important to understand just how crazy it is, because it's "putting ketchup on a hot dog" and "I'm not really into Game of Thrones" crazy.

There are 33 days remaining in the NHL regular season. With slightly more than a month to go, there are exactly two playoff spots up for grabs, one in each conference.

In the East, the Flyers are four points out of a wild-card spot. In the West, the Avalanche are tied with the Wild for the final entry, although they have played one more game than Minnesota. In both cases, the teams in pursuit have less than a 50 percent chance of qualifying, according to Sports Club Stats.

Since 2005-06, the standings on March 9 have been 95.1 percent accurate (137 of 144) at predicting the playoffs during 82-game seasons. Four of the nine seasons featured zero change to the top eight teams in each conference, four others saw one team bump another and the 2008-09 campaign featured three teams emerge from the back of the pack to clinch a postseason berth.

Since 2009-10, three teams in five seasons have pulled themselves out of the also-ran group and into a playoff spot.

The seven teams since 2005-06 that pulled off the feat over that time were an average of 2.85 points out of a playoff spot; last season's Ottawa Senators overcame the greatest deficit in nearly a decade—five points—and all it took was a 13-3-2 finish to claim a wild-card spot.

This year's Senators are the same amount of points (5) out of a playoff spot and have four fewer contests remaining (14) than they did when they closed like wildfire last year and have played two more games than Detroit. The Hurricanes, who are four points back, traded captain Eric Staal for picks and a prospect at the deadline and have played one more game.

It's over. Watch baseball. Sign up for cooking lessons or an art course.

There's nothing wrong with coaches and players maintaining hope and speaking positively about the remainder of the season. But whenever someone on TV or in the media is speaking, it's important to keep your bullshit radar on high alert. Six points may not seem like a lot, but if any team below the Flyers in the East reaches the playoffs, it will deserve it's own 30 for 30 documentary on ESPN.

There are 18 fan bases that should be enthusiastic about purchasing tickets for home games. Everyone else is potentially facing an onslaught of marketing and misinformation designed to get you to believe it's worth attending a game or watching on TV. Sure, someone telling Leafs fans they aren't mathematically eliminated isn't going to make a dent, but there's always a few extra dollars to be extracted from fans of teams under the illusion they have a chance.

Maybe you're saying, "Dave, this is all because of the shootout and the loser point and how easy it is to get points these days! It ruins the end of the season and this points system deceives fans!"

I thought that, too. Things are worse than ever in that regard but at this stage of the season, things have always been just about over.

In the nine seasons between 1995-96 and 2003-04, just 10 teams (93.1 percent) overtook a team in a postseason spot if they were out on March 9. Those seasons are before the NHL instituted the shootout and include four seasons without a loser point. For nearly 20 years, the NHL has shown that when teams have about one-sixth of their schedule remaining, only about six percent of teams have gone from out to in during that time.

Perhaps now you're asking, "Dave, is that lack of fluidity in the late-season standings connected to a decline in offence? Were things different in the high-scoring, rollicking 1980s?"

No! The NHL's final month has always been this way.

Between 1980-81 and 1989-1990, 150 of 160 teams on March 4 (the date is pushed back for 80-game seasons) did not relinquish their hold on a playoff spot, which is 93.8 percent of teams.

No matter the era—the free-wheeling 1980s, trapping 1990s or loser point 2000s and 2010s—the final month of the NHL season usually has all the thrills of a broken-down roller coaster, as between 93 and 95 percent of teams have been maintaining playoff spots at this point of the season for about 35 years.

As far as I can tell, there's no way to fix it, either. If we abandoned shootouts and allowed games to end in ties or went to a 3-2-1 points system, the fact remains the same points are available to the same teams equally. Unless the NHL decided to let teams in ninth place or lower get twice as many points for wins as teams in the top eight, the final 15-20 games are always going to be mostly meaningless.

Even when using Feb. 8 as the checkpoint, when teams have about 27 games remaining, no more than three teams in a single season have gone from out to in since 2005-06. On three occasions, 13 of 16 spots were decided; on four occasions, 14 of 16 spots were decided, and on two occasions there were 15 of 16 spots already decided.

This information should do two things for teams:

1. Don't wait to commit to the tank—If overcoming a six-point deficit on March 9 is hockey's equivalent of climbing Mount Everest with a sumo wrestler on your back, you should be way more inclined to tank if that deficit is double digits in February. The 2014-15 Senators overcame a 14-point deficit on Feb. 10, an NHL record, but it took a 23-4-4 finish just to get a wild-card spot. It's irresponsible to think your team will do that. Tank.

2. Shorten the damn season already—If anything, this shows a 60-game season is the ideal length. The NHL's final quarter is producing about a seven percent change in the playoff teams since 2005-06. That's not even an acceptable batting average for a pitcher.

If you're a fan of the Devils, Hurricanes, Senators or any other team that's way back in the playoff chase and you want to spend $60 for a ticket now, go for it. No one is saying you shouldn't. But if you do, go to that game with the understanding of the odds. It'll lessen the disappointment and if you're really smart, you'll save the $60 and put it toward that cooking class.