Leafs' Rebuild Will Take Time but New Approach Is for Real

This article originally appeared on VICE Sports Canada.

When Maple Leafs Sports and Entertainment boss Tim Leiweke stole Brendan Shanahan away from the NHL and Gary Bettman, he set the wheels in motion for drastic change, one that would emphasize process over result.

Shanahan wanted to take advantage of hockey's Moneyball movement and focus on possession metrics after the Leafs operated in a conventional manner for years. He quickly restructured some of the front office, including bringing in fresh analytical thinkers from all different backgrounds.

Shanahan hired 28-year-old Sault Ste. Marie general manager Kyle Dubas, one of the brightest young minds from the OHL, as an assistant general manager. He gave roles to former advanced stats bloggers Rob Pettapiece and Cam Charron—who regularly criticized the team—while buying out Darryl Metcalf's ExtraSkater.com and bringing him on board. Toronto let go of assistant GM Claude Loiselle and vice president of hockey operations Dave Poulin, both of whom were holdovers from the Brian Burke regime. Shanahan wanted the organization to have the smartest hockey minds use the best resources available.

Leiweke explained it by saying that Shanahan came in and decided the organization was going to be smart from now on. He bought into Shanahan's vision.

"We are very convinced that analytics make us smarter. We are very convinced that analytics will reduce our mistakes," Leiweke said back in September.

When things expectedly soured during the 2014-15 season, the plan Shanahan was implementing became clearer.

The Leafs wiped the slate clean, ridding themselves of Randy Carlyle, Dave Nonis, David Clarkson and a reported 18 scouts—including director of pro scouting Steve Kasper and director of player development Jimmy Hughes. The club brought in former London Knights GM Mark Hunter midseason as the director of player personnel, and had an almost entirely different management team from that of the previous season.

With an emphasis on fancy stats, Shanahan wanted to turn things around, his way.

The Maple Leafs have struggled immensely over the years with possession. They've posted the NHL's fifth worst Corsi percentage (the percentage of on-ice shot attempts taken by the player's team) since 2007. The club has been second worst in the stat, to the possession black hole known as the Buffalo Sabres, since 2012 at 44.5 percent. The Red Wings (first), Blackhawks (second) and Los Angeles Kings (fourth), Stanley Cup winners during that span, all rank in the top five. While it's not everything, possession matters in today's NHL.

The club also ranks in the bottom five since 2007 in shots against per 60 minutes at 30.8 (27th) and save percentage (91.56). It wasn't because the team was insanely unlucky, as the Leafs posted the 19th lowest PDO (even strength save percentage plus shooting percentage) in the NHL.

Toronto was previously hindered by putrid drafting and development. The Burke/Nonis regime favoured big and tough players, drafting the likes of Tyler Biggs, Brad Ross and Frederik Gauthier with high draft picks, while plugging enforcers all over the NHL lineup.

The club's AHL affiliate, the Toronto Marlies, were used as a stopgap and not as a development tool. That's not how Shanahan and company view things. The Maple Leafs recently hired Dubas' former Sault Ste. Marie head coach Sheldon Keefe—another analytics proponent—to oversee development at the AHL level.

Their approach is changing, and the team plans on using its farm systems like the Tampa Bay Lightning and Detroit Red Wings—two teams that let its prospects develop—no matter how long it takes, opposed to throwing them in the fire like the Leafs of old. They've doubled down on that notion, by reaching an agreement this year with the Orlando Solar Bears of the ECHL, which gives the organization another springboard for grooming young talent. The focus isn't on the win-loss record in the minors, but development.

The team's rebuilding efforts has seen it start to assemble a decent prospect core, which includes William Nylander, Brendan Leipsic, Andreas Johnson, Connor Brown and whomever the organization drafts with its fourth overall selection.

Dubas is content with that group, but told TSN 1050 Radio this month that the club needs to keep pushing forward.

"We're pretty happy with how our young players are coming along so we're starting to build it up. But we realize the task at hand is a long one, but an exciting one at the same time," he said.

With the upcoming draft just days away, the Leafs have been linked to London Knights forward Mitch Marner, who coincidentally was drafted into the OHL by Hunter—the man reportedly responsible for the team's selections.

The Thornhill, Ontario, native is often knocked for his 5'11", 160-pound frame, but he's got heaps of skill, finishing second in the league with 126 points in 63 games, while scoring a robust 3.26 even strength points per sixty minutes, which was second only to hockey phenom Connor McDavid. He'd represent Leafs management's emphasis on skill and talent over size.

The coaching outlook has also changed dramatically. The Leafs struck it big when becoming the surprise winners of the Mike Babcock free agent sweepstakes. Babcock appears to be the right man for the job.

"I love (analytics). What I love about it is I love information," he said shortly after the hiring. "What I've tried to do is surround myself with as many young, smarter people than me, more learned in that area than me, and they give you information."

The Leafs look like they finally have a plan and are building toward something, and Shanahan's fingerprints are all over it. It's not a win-now mentality, but for those in Toronto starved of winning hockey, at least the organization's trying to do things a new way. Will it work? Only time will tell.

Stats courtesy War on Ice & CHL Stats