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Sports

The Denver Broncos Double Down on Free Agency, Again

Will Denver's offseason splurge end up costing them in the long run?
Photo by Kelley L Cox/USA Today Sports

You can typically measure the success of an NFL franchise by how little they invest in free agency. The basic tenant works like this: Healthy franchises build through the draft, while mediocre ones build through free agency.

That theory has been uttered so many times that it has almost become cliché to word it in such a manner. But it's true, which is why the mantra exists. The teams that listen to fans and talk-radio hosts and load up through free agency often begin to disintegrate some time during training camp, and then spend the next several years crawling through shit-smelling foulness to escape salary-cap hell.

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Remember the so-called "Dream Team" the Philadelphia Eagles assembled in 2011? That team went all in by signing three of the defensive jewels from that free agent class in defensive end Jason Babin, defensive tackle Cullen Jenkins, and cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha. The Eagles finished the season 8-8. All three players have since been cut.

Philadelphia wasn't the only team to struggle finding free agents that offseason. Nineteen players signed deals with new teams that spanned four more years. More then half have been put out to pasture. The teams signing players learned the hard way that trying to fix your problems with mercenaries is how you end up with players like Mike Wallace, who counts $17.25 million against the Miami Dolphins' cap next season after catching 73 passes for 930 yards last year.

To illustrate how bad that deal was, consider that many of the league's top quarterbacks count nearly the same or less than Wallace will against Miami's cap, including Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers ($17.25 million), Denver's Peyton Manning ($17.5 million), and New England's Tom Brady ($14.8 million). And since the Dolphins can save $2.5 million by cutting Wallace next season, or $9.3 million in 2016, it's almost certain he'll be looking to get over on another team in the near future.

So it was surprising to see that, fresh off a 43-8 loss to the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLVIII, the Denver Broncos attacked free agency like an overzealous hypebeast trying to land the newest Jordans. In other words, general manager John Elway wasn't playing. His defense was brutal in the Super Bowl, so he starting dropping stacks of money on any available player with a presentable resume.

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Cornerback Aqib Talib got $57 million over six years. Safety T.J. Ward was given $22.5 million over four years. Defensive end DeMarcus Ware got $30 million over three years. And just to show he wasn't biased, Elway gave wide receiver wide receiver Emmauel Sanders a three-year deal worth $15 million after losing Eric Decker to the New York Jets.

Elway wasn't shy about sharing the motivation behind his spending spree. Even though his squad dropped the Patriots in the AFC title game, he felt as if he was in an arms race with New England and saw free agency as a way to get ahead. We'll have to wait to see if works out, but his plan has already backfired in one way. After stealing Talib from the Pats, New England was able to sign cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner.

"You have your wish list, and we're fortunate enough … we were able to X off guys on our wish list that were able to come here," Elway said. "We want good football players that are going to be here for a long time. The basic [idea] is to get as young as we can with the best player we have."

Most teams, as previously mentioned, end up in peril after throwing money around the way Elway has. There are ways to game the salary cap, such as restructuring deals or extending players, but eventually everything comes to light. That day will eventually come for Denver. That will probably only be a minor nuisance though since cap guru Mike Sullivan, a former agent, put the Broncos in a position where they can walk away from some of the deals with minor ramifications.

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That means the Broncos won't have much trouble wiping the slate clean once Manning retires and the Super Bowl window closes.

On the surface, Talib's deal is huge, maybe even stupid. He has never been able to stay healthy and has not proven that he can stay out of trouble and motivated when he isn't playing for his next contract. On top of that, he will be approaching his mid-30s when the deal expires.

Really, though, with the way his contract is structured, it's more like a three-year deal worth $27 million. And since Talib's deal is guaranteed only for injury in 2015 and 2016, if things sour before then, Denver can release Talib before the third day of the league year in those seasons with minor salary-cap ramifications. So, if Talib turns out to be a disaster in year one, Denver can walk away after only paying him $12 million.

His recent arrest at a strip club aside, T.J. Ward might be one of the better bargains of the offseason when considering that his former team, the Cleveland Browns, gave Donte Whitner a four-year, $28 million deal. Ward will likely play out his deal if he remains one of the better safeties in the NFL, which contains no guaranteed money in the final two seasons. If not, his salary does not become fully guaranteed until the fifth day of 2015 league year.

The Broncos can also easily walk away from Sanders after this season if he fails to replace Decker. His $4 million base salary for 2015 is not guaranteed, meaning Denver would only carry over $1 million from his singing bonus if Sanders is released.

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The only contract that will be difficult to get out from under belongs to Ware, who turns 32 next month. His $3.5 million base salary in 2015 is guaranteed, which, regardless of how he plays, likely means that he will be sticking around for two seasons. His salary in the third year of the deal does not become guaranteed until the fifth day of the league year.

Perhaps Elway should be believed when he says that his team isn't going all in for this season.

"Everyone keeps talking about, 'Well, you're doing this to win now,'" Elway told a Denver radio station. "I say, 'No, we're doing this to win (from) now on.' That's what we're doing. We're not mortgaging our future."

It remains to be seen if Elway's intentions become reality. While Denver has intelligently structured many of the contracts they have given out, and can escape with minimal damage at any time, money is still going out the door.

How much that money matters remains to be seen. The salary cap jumped nearly $10 million dollars this offseason to $133 million, and Houston Texans owner Bob McNair recently said) believes it could climb as much as $15 million next season once some of the league's new TV contracts kick in.

So, if the final figure for 2015 comes anywhere close McNair's estimate, the Broncos, who currently have $116 million committed to next year's cap, according to overthecap.com, should have no problem re-signing key players such as tight end Julius Thomas and wide receiver Demaryius Thomas.

There certainly might come a time after Manning retires when the Broncos are full of regret for not grooming more young players, but they should have the financial flexibility to again throw more money around, if they so choose, once that day arrives.

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Nick Underhill covers the Patriots for MassLive.com. Follow him on Twitter @nick_underhill.