NFL DFS Week 5: Matchups, not Letdowns

Wowee. After Week 3's explosion in fantasy scoring, Week 4 was more pedestrian. The winning ticket on DraftKings Millionaire Maker scored 100 points fewer than last week! You only had to have Devonta Freeman (this week's price $6,300) to make the top 10 amid a mix of players who scored in the top third. Heck even Blake Bortles ($5,100) made the winning ticket.

Now with four data points—i.e., four weeks' worth of games—a baseline is emerging for each player. Very few players who scored big for the first time like Tavon Austin ($4,300) or Doug Martin ($4,700) were actually part of top tickets. So, thankfully, if you missed out on them, so did the winners. And all of the great wideouts from Week 3 were disappointing to mediocre; perhaps NFL defenses are becoming adept at taking away the hot numbers of the week before. With four weeks of data we can now attempt to pick players in the kinds of matchups that have previously made them successful, rather than just remembering the last thing we saw. Which is nice, because I'm as guilty of that as anyone.

Minnesota, Carolina, Miami, and the Jets are on a bye, and Indy and Houston play on Thursday night.

Here are some players I'm looking at for Week 5.

QB

Tom Brady ($7,800) – Tom certainly remembers the Cowboys pass defense getting scorched

Matt Ryan ($6,700) – Who doesn't want the king on Atlanta's chessboard?

Carson Palmer ($6,600) – Detroit has been hot-and-cold against QBs

Philip Rivers ($6,200) – Great in Week 1 and Week 4 and love his home matchup against the Steelers

Alex Smith ($5,500) – A cheap option against the Bears

RB

Jamaal Charles ($7,800) – As consistent a running back as there is

Devonta Freeman ($6,300) – Even now, still cheap for his potential

Karlos Williams ($5,700) – Only if he plays, after suffering a concussion last week

Dion Lewis ($4,800) – Dallas can't cover those pass-catching RBs; a great flex option

Duke Johnson ($4,600) – Did we miss our best chance?

Danny Woodhead ($4,600) – The Chargers may be missing Floyd and Stevie, and Woody catches passes

WR

Julio Jones ($9,200) – The Falcons never needed him last week

Randall Cobb ($7,500) – Don't stop believing

Keenan Allen ($7,200) – As I said, the rest of those Chargers wideouts are banged up

Julian Edelman ($7,000) – He's ba-aaack (and not very expensive)

Jeremy Maclin ($6,000) – It's alive!

James Jones ($5,700) – Wideout 1A in Green Bay?

Leonard Hankerson ($4,000) – Two great weeks out of four, and 25 targets the past three weeks

TE

Gronk ($7,500) – Never more expensive; might have to play him at flex and choose another TE

Travis Kelce ($5,200) – I like everyone against the Bears

Charles Clay ($4,100) – Talent plus opportunity

Owen Daniels ($2,700) – You've yet to go wrong if you took a TE against the Raiders

DEF

Falcons ($3,200) – Can they exploit another bad QB, facing Kirk Cousins?

Packers ($3,100) – Love those sacks

Giants ($2,900) – Facing Kaepernick mean sacks and balls thrown out of bounds

Bengals ($2,800) – Really cheap, plus facing a secretly cruddy Seahawks offense

My Ticket

Philip Rivers, Jamaal Charles, Devonta Freeman, Keenan Allen, Jeremy Maclin, James Jones, Owen Daniels, Dion Lewis, Bengals defense