​Week 9 NFL Game Previews: Behind the Eight Ball Sunday

Game of the Week: Carolina at Green Bay, 1 ET, FOX

Denver's domination of Green Bay last Sunday night was surprising. We knew that Randall Cobb was playing hurt and Jordy Nelson was gone. We knew that Aaron Rodgers was prone to games, like the one against Buffalo last year, where the pass rush whips him, but I don't think we've ever seen Rodgers so flustered and ineffective.

Carolina, meanwhile, was able to stifle the Colts for three quarters on Monday night. Andrew Luck's ribs healed enough to take the game to overtime. OK, OK, I'm kidding: the Panthers called off the dogs for a few drives and lost a few 50-50 balls in a mad scramble. They also realized they couldn't effectively rush the passer without Charles Johnson.

This game is a chance for either the Packers or the Panthers to seize total control of the NFC playoff picture. It could be argued that, because of Carolina's schedule, they've already seized it. My guess is that this will be a closer game than you might expect. Ultimately, I won't be worried about the Packers until I see another bad week. Denver has baffled a lot of offenses, and Green Bay is at home.

Pick: Packers 24, Panthers 20

Playoff Positioning Game of the Week: Oakland at Pittsburgh, 1 ET, CBS

A game with two of the three .500-or-better, non-undefeated AFC teams! Try typing that three times fast.

Oakland was able to handle the Jets pretty easily last week; knocking Ryan Fitzpatrick out of the game helped. What Oakland is doing is incredibly simple: they're spreading the field, letting Derek Carr make reads with little duress, and taking the short throws. This is college spread 101 stuff, and NFL teams just haven't adjusted to it yet. Nor have they been able to keep Amari Cooper from breaking tackles and taking it to the house.

Pittsburgh is trying to complete a game without losing a star player. Ben Roethlisberger comes back, Le'Veon Bell leaves. DeAngelo Williams should be a fine back in the meantime, but he limits the amount of upside Pittsburgh has on a per-carry basis. If he happens to come down with a sudden case of 32-year-old-back-itis, there's not much behind him.

Pittsburgh usually plays up to their competition, but given that we haven't seen Roethlisberger come back and perform at a top level yet, I'm leaning toward Oakland.

Pick: Oakland 27, Pittsburgh 24

Football Nerd Game of the Week: St. Louis at Minnesota, 1 ET, FOX

Look, any game with Todd Gurley is already a must-watch if you can find it on television. He's everything you hope for in a rookie back drafted in the first round. He's worth the price of admission.

Beyond that, these are two second-tier NFC playoff race contenders. You get a chance to check out Teddy Bridgewater's development as he faces his first deadly defense since Denver. Will it be another checkdown-fest, or will the Vikings find some of the weak links in the St. Louis secondary?

If the Minnesota run defense somehow manages to contain Gurley, does St. Louis have any sort of counterpunch? Does Nick Foles even have permission to throw at this point?

Pick: St. Louis 20, Minnesota 10

Game You'll Only See on Red Zone or in Local Markets: Miami at Buffalo, 1 ET, CBS

Our final big game of this week is one that gets broadcast only in South Florida, Upstate New York, and (for some reason) Maine. Miami trounced two AFC South teams and was on the other side of the hooves against the Patriots. Is there a happy medium to be found, or are the Dolphins about to find out they're the "good bad" team? Does Miami even have a pass rush without star edge rusher Cameron Wake?

Buffalo is asking itself the same questions after falling to Jacksonville in London a few weeks ago. Their defensive stars are healthy but have had problems producing results in the sacks column. The electric Tyrod Taylor will be back from injury, but Sammy Watkins is looking like a game-time decision and Percy Harvin is nowhere to be found.

This is basically an elimination game for both teams. Miami has a back-loaded schedule and desperately needs a win to stay on the right side of .500. If Buffalo takes a loss, they're 3-5 and behind the entire division. Neither scenario is impossible to come back from, but both are improbable.

It worries me that I like Buffalo in this game, mostly because Taylor's last healthy game involved him getting shut down by the Titans as a passer. But Dan Campbell toughness memes are sooooo October.

Pick: Buffalo 24, Miami 18

AFC South Futility Update: Indianapolis at Denver, 4:05 ET, CBS | New Orleans at Tennessee, 1:05 ET, FOX | Jacksonville at NY Jets, 1 ET, CBS

So here's the situation: Indianapolis, Tennessee, and Jacksonville are all favored to lose by five or more points. Somehow, that line seems too low on Indianapolis considering that Denver's Demolition Derby defense is here to ruin Andrew Luck's life. If all three teams lose, the Texans will slide into first place. They are 3-5.

Thanks to last year's NFC South, we have a slew of recent articles about the worst divisions in NFL history. This year, that NFC South is fattening up on the tasty corpse of the AFC South. The AFC South has a grand total of three non-division wins: Houston and Tennessee both jumped Tampa, and Jacksonville outlasted E.J. Manuel in London.

Updated AFC South odds: 51.2% chance of division champ being 7-9 or worse. 6-10 or worse: 15.4%. 5-11: 1.0%.

— Aaron Schatz (@FO_ASchatz)November 3, 2015

This week could bring us one step closer to a six-win AFC South champion. Perhaps five wins if Luck is decapitated a la the fake Simpsons football intro in "Lisa the Greek."

Picks: Jacksonville 10, Jets 30 | Tennessee 20, New Orleans 23 | Indianapolis 17, Denver 28

Prime-Time Game That Shouldn't Be: Chicago at San Diego, 8:30 ET Monday, ESPN

The Bears don't have Matt Forte. The Chargers don't have Keenan Allen, and Ladarius Green may also miss this week. And Antonio Gates is playing hurt. And the offensive line continues to get banged up.

So what this ultimately comes down to is three hours of Jon Gruden's softball analysis of Jay Cutler against a good quarterback—something we've seen roughly ten times in the past four years. On the other side of the field, you've got Philip Rivers trying to lead the talentless heap of a roster around him to .500. This is something we've seen roughly 58 times over the past four years.

The optimistic way to position this game is probably "watch Alshon Jeffery do great things!" Which is nice. Given how Chicago and San Diego like to play, though, you'll probably see both teams try to run the ball and pound out a 20-10 win. That sounds more like a scenario for a Melvin Gordon or Jeremy Langford 100-yard game than anything else.

Pick: San Diego 20, Chicago 17