Jonas Valanciunas Will Have to Earn His Playoff Minutes

Eleven months ago, Jonas Valanciunas was enjoying the best short-term stretch of his career. Called upon to carry a greater load with Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan struggling with their respective shots and the threat of Hassan Whiteside looming in the paint opposite him, Valanciunas was dominant across two-and-a-half playoff games against the Miami Heat.

Coming off a strong opening-round series in which he averaged 13.6 points and 11.9 rebounds against the Indiana Pacers, Valanciunas was putting to rest any thought that Bismack Biyombo should be seeing a bigger role, or that Valanciunas' style of play was no longer a match with the modern NBA. He dropped a 24-14-3-2-3 (points-rebounds-assists-steals-blocks) in Game 1 against the Heat and followed it with a 15-12-2-3-1 line, shooting 17-of-25 across the two games. In Game 3, he was well on his way to repeating, with 16 points and 12 rebounds in 22 minutes before disaster struck—Valanciunas suffered a badly sprained ankle that would sideline him for the remainder of the series and the bulk of the Eastern Conference finals.

Perhaps it's a positive harbinger, then, that following the Raptors' victory over Whiteside and the Heat on Friday that Valanciunas avoided a similar injury scare. Coming off a decent if unspectacular performance, Valanciunas was the last Toronto Raptor out of the trainer's room, emerging with tape on his right ankle and knee. The 7-footer had rolled his ankle but played through it, even logging 6:25 of fourth-quarter action, a relative rarity until recently.

"All good," Valanciunas smiled. "It's not that easy to take me down."

If it's not a physical injury that threatens to take Valanciunas down as the Raptors gear up for the postseason, it's the same questions as a year ago.

The Raptors now employ Serge Ibaka, opening up Dwane Casey's options at the center position late in games. For the first few weeks of Ibaka's tenure, Valanciunas was persona non grata in fourth quarters and over the span of a month, his minutes were trimmed to 22.1 per night. Valanciunas' production has been mostly the same as previous years—his per-36 minute numbers and efficiency marks are within hairs of his established norms—but concerns about his pick-and-roll defense are exacerbated when a suitable replacement option exists, especially now that said option isn't a drain at the other end of the floor. Ibaka at center presents Toronto some of its best two-way looks, and Casey has rightfully embraced the opportunity to learn what the team has in these faster, switchier lineups, to mostly positive results.

That doesn't mean Valanciunas won't have a role in the postseason, though, and he's doing a good job ratcheting up his play at the right time (Sunday's outing against the Knicks notwithstanding). Raptor fans have long joked about "Playoff JV," and Valanciunas opting to shave his head and return to his look from prior postseasons appears to have been well-timed. The haircut came on March 20, and after a brief adjustment period, Valanciunas railed off a seven-game stretch in which he averaged 14.1 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks while shooting 69.5 percent. His minutes jumped more than 27 percent as a result, and he was the NBA's leader in plus-minus with a plus-56 mark over four games one week.

Ask around the Raptors' locker room about what Valanciunas needs to do to make that kind of an impact, and everyone will give you the same answer: aggression.

Valanciunas doesn't give the impression of someone who lacks in that regard often, but his defensive shortcomings are often attributed to focus or intensity. Those close to Valanciunas say the Lithuanian, who was raised on basketball, cares deeply about his performance and the team's success, despite whatever psychological outsiders want to ascribe his play to. It's logical that a player would be more dialed in defensively or on the glass if they were more involved in the offense, but Valanciunas is five years into the exact same role and has rarely, if ever, complained.

Ask him about his poor play following a loss or his dominant play following a win, and you're going to get the exact same answer about how he felt great, and why the team winning is more important than his personal production.

That might just be years of media training, good instincts, or a recognition of what the impression of saying anything else at all might give. It's also possible that Valanciunas feels this way and, having tasted postseason success, is aware of how his strengths are best leveraged alongside Lowry and DeRozan. It's not as if last year's postseason surge saw the Raptors force-feeding Valanciunas post touches, after all—his points came largely on offensive rebounds and hard rolls to the rim, long the formula for his scoring in Casey's offense. That formula is unlikely to change this time around in the playoffs, either.

"I'm just playing. I don't like to talk about myself and what I do good. As long as the team's winning, I'm happy," he says. "I'm gonna do everything I'm doing right now, everything it takes to win a game, I'm going to be doing the same thing in the playoffs."

How big a role Valanciunas stands to play in the playoffs is one of the biggest rotation questions facing Casey and his staff. They've recently experimented with Valanciunas helping prop up bench units at the start of the second and fourth quarters to moderate success, and that set up makes a good deal of sense against Toronto's most likely first-round opponent, the Milwaukee Bucks (the Bucks use Greg Monroe similarly). The Bucks also happen to be among the league's worst rebounding teams, and so while Valanciunas may not be an ideal defensive fit against their starters, he can magnify their biggest deficiency. On the odd chance the Raptors instead draw the Pacers, well, Valanciunas has dominated the boards against them this season and did so in the first round last year.

Whichever team the Raptors draw, Valanciunas' role will only be as large as his play commands. Casey won't hesitate to go smaller with Ibaka at the five against either potential opponent, and he's shown a willingness to use rookie Jakob Poeltl even as he's tried to tighten his late-season rotation to playoff proportions. "Playoff JV" could play 30 minutes and be a major factor. Post-deadline Valanciunas might be limited to 20 and not see the floor in the fourth. Where he falls could have major implications on how the Raptors approach the offseason, too, when success will suggest continuity but the luxury tax will preclude everyone from staying.

His potentially fluid role and matchup-dependent workload in the playoffs isn't lost on him, but it doesn't seem to bother him, either.

"For me, personally? Every night is a different animal, you know?" he says. "I'm just looking for some basketball. I'm looking for the playoffs in general. It's going to be a good moment for us."

Valanciunas is going to find some basketball this weekend. Just how much he'll find could depend entirely on him.