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NFL Key Performance Indicators: NFC South

Here's what fans of the Falcons, Saints, Panthers, and Bucs should be watching in August for hints about how their teams might perform come kickoff time.
Photo by Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Every spring, every NFL team looks to get better: they draft rookies, they sign free agents, they let underperforming players go. But when teams aren't being put to the test against each other, how can we know if they're really improving? Throughout July, VICE Sports will be identifying Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for each squad: the things fans should be watching in August for hints about how their teams might perform come kickoff time.

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TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Last season was the Year of Jameis in Tampa Bay. Hope abounded that the No. 1 overall pick could catalyze an offense with abundant pass-catching talent. VICE Sports asked former Buccaneers quarterback Chris Simms, now a lead analyst with Bleacher Report, to identify Winston and the Bucs' training-camp KPIs. Overall, Simms is bullish on the Bucs this year: "When you break it down, position group by position group," he said, there's plenty of talent all over the field, and the coaching changes facilitate both continuity and improvement.

Read More: NFL Key Performance Indicators in the AFC South

• Pre-Snap Patter: "Jameis had a phenomenal rookie season last year," Simms said. "I don't know if people understand just how good he was." Even so, Winston has a lot he can improve on his way to becoming one of the league's best passers. Simms said one important key will be Winston's pre-snap recognition, diagnosis, and adjustment: "Just 'check, check, check,' or 'kill, kill, kill'." Camp observers should keep an ear out for a lot of the at-line adjustments veterans frequently make.

• Keeping the Ball off the Ground: Accuracy is one place Winston could take a big step forward. Completion rate doesn't correlate perfectly with ball placement, but the ball shouldn't hit the ground often in scrimmage. "If they're in seven-on-seven and Jameis gets 12 reps," Simms said, "I don't know if you can expect him to get all 12, but you'd like to see ten-for-12. If he's going six-for-12, that's getting pretty rough."

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Jameis Winston during minicamp. Photo by Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

• Comfortable Corners: The Buccaneers have made major investments in the secondary year after year, but their defensive schemes blunted the impact of talented veterans like Darrelle Revis and Alterraun Verner. With former Atlanta Falcons head coach Mike Smith taking over the defense, Simms thinks that free-agent signee Brent Grimes and No. 11 overall pick Vernon Hargreaves should be comfortable in a defense where they'll play more man-to-man. Verner is less of a fit, however. "I played with Alterraun Verner when I was in Tennessee," Simms said, "and he's a good zone corner, more of a Ronde Barber type." Simms expects Hargreaves to start ahead of Verner from Day 1, so if he struggles to crack the starting lineup the way 2015 No. 11 overall pick Trae Waynes did, that's not a good sign for Hargreaves—or the Bucs' defense

• Up-Front Protection: The Bucs put a lot of pressure on rookie linemen Ali Marpet and Donovan Smith last season. The addition of veteran guard J.R. Sweezy should help alleviate some of it, and Marpet and Smith should be more comfortable. Right tackle Demar Dotson, who relieved the flailing Gosder Cherilus late last year, will need to show he can hold up against William Gholston, the fourth-year defensive end who seemingly has been on the verge of a breakout season since he entered the league.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

One foot in the past, one foot in the future: Last year, the Saints tried to lay the groundwork for a post-Drew Brees future while still getting the best out of the veteran quarterback. They also tried to transition away from Rob Ryan's multiple 3-4 defense to a trendy Seahawks-like 4-3…while Ryan was still the defensive coordinator. Defensively, the page has been turned but the 37-year-old Brees is still hanging on. If Brees can't turn in a turn-back-the-clock performance, the Saints face an offensive rebuild.

• Big Uglies Looking Pretty: First-round picks always get plenty of attention, and three-technique Sheldon Rankins is no exception. How he performs against new starting guard Senio Kelemete and veteran center Max Unger will get plenty of coverage, of course, but keep a close eye on fourth-year nose tackle John Jenkins. Drafted to be the two-gap heart of Ryan's defense in 2013, he finally established himself as a valuable run-stuffer last season. The Saints desperately need him to push Unger and company around in August if they're going to slow down the likes of Doug Martin this September. Mercurial free-agent addition Nick Fairley still has Pro Bowl talent, but training camp should reveal how engaged and motivated he is to make a difference.

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• Ingram Chairing the Committee: Tailback Mark Ingram broke out with a Pro Bowl season in 2014, and was on pace to top himself statistically in 2015 when he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. While he was able to participate in the limited-contact minicamp, training camp will be the first time we see him taking contact on his repaired rotator cuff. With the free-agent departure of Khiry Robinson, Ingram should look just the way we last saw him: clearly more effective than Tim Hightower, C.J. Spiller, and seventh-round rookie speedster Daniel Lasco.

Garrett Grayson watches Luke McCown…and waits. Photo by Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

• The Understudy Performance: Brees had some nicks in 2015, allowing back up Luke McCown to snag a few live reps. But McCown is not likely the long-term solution, and the Saints have no idea what they have in 2015 third-round pick Garrett Grayson. Grayson needs significant reps with the first two units if he's going to play well this preseason—and as head coach Sean Payton told Nick Underhill of The New Orleans Advocate, "preseason will be important" in determining Grayson's future with the Saints. With Brees now 37 years old, it's easy to see the No. 2 quarterback getting into multiple games this year; whether Grayson is that player, and whether he does well with the opportunity, could determine whether the Saints offense keeps rolling in 2017 or has to reboot.

ATLANTA FALCONS

The energy of new head coach Dan Quinn and breakout of electrifying tailback Devonta Freeman powered the Falcons to a 6-1 start last year, but #Quinning soon ran out of steam. That first loss, in Week 6, was preceded by an overtime squeaker against Washington, and then followed by a lackluster 10-7 win over Tennessee. Then Atlanta hit a six-game skid, the offense no longer able to mask the defense's flaws. The Week 16 spoiling of rival Carolina Panthers' undefeated season was the only bright spot before an active free agency and a need-heavy draft. Quarterback Matt Ryan, who will cost the Falcons $23.8 million against the cap this year, will have to play much better in Kyle Shanahan's offense, and the still-weak pass rush will have to take another step forward.

• Keanu, Like Whoa: Every first-round pick is vital to every team's near-term success, but Keanu Neal is more important than most. On a team with a lot of pressing needs along both lines, Quinn went all-in on the two-way safety, who was immediately typecast as Kam Chancellor II in the scheme Quinn brought from Seattle. Neal is smaller and faster, but odds are he's unlikely to make four Pro Bowls in his first six seasons. Nevertheless, the Falcons are relying on him to fly all over the field and make plays from the get-go. Look for his name in camp reports, breaking up passes and popping up around the ball.

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• The Secret World of Alex Mack: Forgive the Nickelodeon joke, but the veteran center is coming off a super-powered season that ended with his third Pro Bowl. After seven years with the Cleveland Browns, Mack signed with the Falcons this offseason. The three interior line spots have been perennial problems in Atlanta; Mack should immediately be anchor there. Further, his savvy with protection calls should make the whole line appear more cohesive. This is key not just to opening up offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan's passing game but to giving Freeman room to work his magic far more often. Freeman finished third in Football Outsiders' Effective Yards, but 23rd in success rate; in camp he shouldn't be stuffed at the line nearly as often.

Keanu Neal is fast, but will that be enough for the Falcons? Photo by Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

• Sanu You Didn't: With disgruntled Falcons stalwart Roddy White on the outs and surprise second-option Harry Douglas off to Tennessee, free-agent import Mohamed Sanu will be asked to fill two pairs of cleats this training camp when he lines up across from all-world No. 1 Julio Jones. Sanu, whose undeniable athleticism has never translated into big-time production, was Pro Football Focus' 101st-graded receiver out of 121 qualifiers last season. Behind Sanu, kick returner Devin Hester and inconstant tight end Coby Fleener are the only dynamic pass-catching threats. Sanu will have to step onto the field in August a better Falcon than he ever was a Bengal.

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CAROLINA PANTHERS

With a magical 15-1 season spoiled only by that "-1", and an incredible Super Bowl run spoiled only by not winning it, league MVP Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers don't have much room for improvement. Yet, the shocking release of cornerback Josh Norman—a season-long shortlister for the 2015 Defensive Player of the Year award—and the aging out of a lot of role players means the Panthers have quite a bit to prove when they put the pads back on.

• Is Cam Newton Smiling, and Does His Smile Appear to be Genuine: Kidding. I'm kidding. This is a joke bullet point.

• Literally the Entire Secondary: The Panthers lost Bene Benwikere and Peanut Tillman, two of their top three corners, in the season's dying weeks. Benwikere is still rehabbing his broken leg, Tillman is still rehabbing his ACL, and the Panthers haven't re-signed Tillman or Cortland Finnegan, who provided crucial backup in the playoffs. Safety Roman Harper went back to the Saints, leaving Benwikere and safety Kurt Coleman as the only two holdovers in the Panthers' "starting" nickel package. Perhaps not surprisingly, the Panthers took defensive backs with their second, third, and fourth selections in the draft; how these rookies fare against Newton (and how quickly Benwikere gets up to full speed) will be absolutely crucial to the Panthers' season.

Cam Newton, everyone. Photo by Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

• All About the Benjamin: Much of the offseason has been spent excitedly discussing the potential of Dante Fowler Jr.'s "rookie" season with the Jacksonville Jaguars, but there's been relatively little chatter about the Panthers getting back wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin, who also missed all of the 2015 season due to ACL injury. Unlike Fowler, Benjamin, who was drafted in 2014, is a proven impact player; he racked up 1,008 yards and nine touchdowns on 73 catches his rookie year. If Benjamin walks into training camp and picks up where he left off, that would impact the offense almost as much as Norman's departure impacted the defense.

• Jonathan, Stalwart: As fantasy football players know all too well, tailback Jonathan Stewart has been touted as a breakout candidate basically every single one of his eight seasons. Between the competition from DeAngelo Williams, the running prowess of Cam Newton, and the fragility of his own body, Stewart didn't make the Pro Bowl until he was just weeks shy of his 29th birthday last year. Now, standing in the shadow of his 30s, Stewart is still the bell-cow back in an offense that relies on a power running game to get tough yards. He's nominally healthy, but if Father Time hasn't already come for Stewart's ability to carry the load, he's at least on his way. Panthers fans need to keep an eye on Stewart's health and burst throughout August (and beyond).

Correction: A previous version of this story incorrectly identified William Gholston as having 11 sacks last season when in fact he had 11 starts and three sacks.

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