​Week 13 NFL Game Previews: Surging Seahawks, Skyrocketing Chiefs, and Matt Hasselbeck Winz

Game of the Week: Seattle at Minnesota, 1 ET, FOX

It feels like these two teams have been front and center all season in these previews, which is a nice way of saying that I think we've used up most of the material at this point. If you haven't been following along, Minnesota is a statistical paper tiger. They're 13th in DVOA, barely above average, despite the 8-3 record.

Seattle has been on its last stand for a playoff spot so long that the rest of the NFC competition has crumbled around it. Atlanta is reeling so badly they just ceded a playoff spot to them. Green Bay was a Hail Mary away from falling even with the Seahawks. Despite Jimmy Graham's season-ending injury, Seattle has to be considered favorites for a wild card at this point.

This is a match-up between two coaching staffs that limit their passing games as much as possible. Neither quarterback is asked to throw deep. One of these teams has the leading rusher by DVOA, and the other has Adrian Peterson, the last true bellcow back. While the Vikings have handled themselves well against the run the past two weeks, a season-long look would tell you that their run defense is the weakest unit on either side of the ball.

It feels incredibly weird to be backing the Seahawks after they spent the first two months of the season trying to wreck their chances, but here we are.

Pick: Seattle 23, Minnesota 18

Football Nerd Game of the Week: Kansas City at Oakland, 4 ET, CBS

After being left for dead in Week 5, the Chiefs have become the hottest team in the NFL. They easily replaced Jamaal Charles, and we're now at the point where Alex Smith is actually throwing downfield. Yes, this is not a drill. The defense has been similarly effective, though edge rusher Justin Houston's PCL sprain will weaken the unit in this game.

The Raiders … not so much. It should be noted that going 0-3 against the Steelers, the Vikings, and the Lions isn't out of the range of possibilities for a good team. Still, they've gone from wild card frontrunner to just barely in the picture. They've got their backs up against the wall here—seven losses might cut it for an AFC playoff club, but they'd likely need to win out if they lost on Sunday.

Kansas City has certainly played like a dominant team lately. They don't have any obvious flaws to me outside of the Houston injury and a somewhat weak offensive line. But I keep coming back to the Raiders here: I like this offense, and I think Kansas City's ability to limit the big play won't matter quite as much against an offense that is happy to methodically march down the field.

Pick: Oakland 27, Kansas City 26

Playoff Positioning Game of the Week: Pittsburgh at Indianapolis, 8:30 ET, NBC

We haven't talked much about the Colts lately. There's not a whole lot here to discuss, honestly. Some Indy media members have tried to make a case that Matt Hasselbeck should start even when Andrew Luck returns because of Winz. This is a thing that's really happening. If the anti-vaccination crowd were to be transmogrified into football fans, they'd definitely believe in quarterback wins above all other logic.

Pittsburgh lost a tight game against Seattle, but won respect. The offense was excellent, and we always knew that defense would struggle at times this season. Any team that can put this much firepower on the field is going to have a chance in every game.

Indianapolis is hot, and they have won three in a row. But they also caught Denver without DeMarcus Ware, caught the Falcons on their downswing, and stalemated a rookie quarterback. If they win against this Steelers team on Sunday while playing a conservative offensive and with a defense that's mediocre at best, we're going to have to drug test Hasselbeck again.

Pick: Pittsburgh 30, Indianapolis 19

Denting Playoff Hopes Game of the Week: Atlanta at Tampa Bay, 1 ET, FOX

It's never a good sign when we mention how badly you're choking twice before we even get to your actual game in the column. The Falcons have put up a negative team DVOA in six of their past seven games. They have had four straight games with a negative rushing DVOA. Their defense, while much improved from last season, was never supposed to buoy this team. Matt Ryan is taking the blame despite the total lack of offensive weapons, and those columns anointing Kyle Shanahan the next great head coach have stopped.

Tampa, to be honest, isn't even that good. Jameis Winston's offensive line is pretty lackluster, and other than Vincent Jackson and Mike "Drop Fest" Evans, he has nobody to throw to. The pass defense is sadly inefficient. This is a rebuilding team with real flaws.

And yet, I still can't come up with a reason for the Falcons to beat them unless I believe in Devonta Freeman to shuck DVOA's second-ranked rush defense. These teams each have about a 15 percent chance at a playoff berth. Whoever loses is basically playing for next year.

And I still can't pick Atlanta.

Pick: Tampa 26, Atlanta 17

Prime-Time Game That Shouldn't Be: Dallas at Washington, Monday at 8:30 ET, ESPN

Somebody has to win the NFC East. Nobody deserves it. And when nobody deserves it, Washington is there to pick up the scraps. They're the champion this division deserves. Washington has benefitted from Tony Romo's injuries, Chip Kelly's hubris, and whatever is ailing the Giants.

Kirk Cousins is playing better this season—at least, in those weeks where he doesn't turn it over twice. Matt Jones has established himself earlier than expected. Washington has run into the right dumpster fires at the right times, and their special teams have kept them afloat despite the fact that neither side of the ball has actually been good.

Dallas has nothing left to do but play spoiler. They can, in theory, still run the ball. Matt Cassel could lob balls up to Dez Bryant. None of those things actually happen on a weekly basis, mind you, but they could happen.

In an NFC East where everything else has gone wrong, would Washington really pull ahead here and start heading toward a respectable record?

Nah.

Pick: Dallas 16, Washington 13

Only Available on Local Broadcasts Game of the Week: Jacksonville at Tennessee, 1 ET, CBS

Well, it won't be the smurfs against the dehydrated urine again, so this game has that going for it.

If you've ever wanted to see what a game was like where a) the Titans home fans outnumbered someone and b) two quarterbacks were stripped bare and surrounded with nothing but Allen Robinson, this is your jam. Blake Bortles fantasy owners will run into a brick wall here when they realize that Tennessee can't actually score, thus forcing the Jaguars to hand off the ball to Toby Gerhart ten times in the red zone. Gus Bradley thought Gerhart could be a short-yardage back in the preseason, and why should logic change that now?

Luckily, you won't watch this game anyway. CBS is sending its Z Team to cover this one, which is Brian Anderson and … let's say Jason Sehorn. He does commentary, right? Wait, it'd probably be a quarterback. Dave Krieg. That's the one.

This is a game where draft projections are the only winner.

Pick: Tennessee 19, Jacksonville 16