Malik Monk Is Breaking The Mold, But Is That What The NBA Wants?

Basketball fans like comparing NBA Draft prospects to established professional players. For that matter, so do league scouts. Sure, they'll say that every potential player is unique, and yes, they likely have a much better feel for prospects' skill sets than anyone else. Still, it's human nature to predict the future by consulting the past—and when it's your job to visualize how a young, developing athlete may fit into the NBA as whole or a particular team's scheme, thinking of similarly talented past and present players helps.

But what happens when a player doesn't really have a direct comparable? What if he's unlike anything we've seen in the recent past, for good and, well, not so much?

With Malik Monk, we're about to find out. Over the last decade-plus of draft prospects—hundreds and hundreds of players—the Kentucky shooting guard stands out as genuinely unique. He's a volcanic offensive force, seemingly put on this Earth to get buckets, a 6-foot-3 scorer averaging 22.4 points per game on a 63 percent true-shooting percentage, one of five high-major guards to put up such numbers in the last 25 years of college hoops.

And stats don't tell the whole story. I've watched a lot of college basketball, and I've never seen a player so prone to preposterous, NBA Jam-style he's-on-fire shooting stretches. For example, in Tuesday night's Kentucky win over Georgia, he scored 31 points … in the second half (and overtime):

For almost any other player, this would be a once-in-a-career kind of performance. Not for Monk. In his first high-major college game, he canned seven three-pointers against Michigan State. He scored 47 points in a regulation game against North Carolina earlier this season. He dropped 24 in a half against Ole Miss, then put 27 on South Carolina's top-five in the nation defense. Basically, he's a must-watch for fans, and a must-fear for opposing coaches, one of those rare college players who can produce something truly spectacular.

So: a guy like that must be universally considered a top-five NBA pick, right? Not necessarily. Other numbers work against Monk. In the past 12 drafts, there have been seven shoot-first, sub-6-foot-5 scoring guards with similar offensive profiles to the Wildcats guard.

However, as you'll see below, none of them are actually that comparable:

The good news? Monk's scoring ability per minute exceeds all of these players save Curry. The bad news? Three things stick out. First, Monk is small, with short arms and a skinny frame. That figures to limit his defensive utility, and could lead to slightly less efficient shooting against NBA-caliber defenders. Second, Monk has taken a lower percentage of his half court shots at the rim than any comparable players by a rather large margin. In fact, the only other player who took less than 20 percent of his shots at the rim was Stephen Curry, and he was dealing with odd defensive schemes revolved solely around stopping him. Moreover, he graded out as an elite passer within this grouping.

Even if we compared Monk to point guards instead of scoring guards, his 10-percent mark would still be quite low. And that's a problem, because it means Monk is taking tougher, lower efficiency shots. He does have a pretty nice floater game, but even for the NBA's best, that's not exactly a great shot. Overall, Monk's lack of deep driving and his third big weakness— assist rate—make him an unlikely candidate to be a lead ball-handler at the next level. Given his size, that's another defensive concern.

On the other hand, Monk's a superb athlete. He might be able to grow into a role on both ends. Better yet, his shooting has been astronomically good compared to the above group, and historically strong in general. And it hasn't just come against lower-level defenders—as noted above, Monk has a tendency to save his best games for elite opponents.

Monk has the best catch-and-shoot and the off-the-dribble jumper numbers of anyone on the list. Absurdly, Monk has been better according to Synergy when guarded in catch-and-shoot situations than unguarded, hitting at a 1.53 point-per-shot clip guarded versus 1.15 pps unguarded. That 1.53 pps guarded shot clip is the second-best among high-major players who have taken a similar volume of shots in just over a decade.

As such, should we buy into Monk being a hyper-elite shooter? Coming into college, he was known as streaky: a player who could go on runs, but not as consistently as he has done at Kentucky. According to DraftExpress' extensive shot-tracking database, he hit just 32 percent of his high school three-pointers—although the degree of difficulty on those shots was often high. Figuring out what Monk really is—an improved shooter who is now among the best in the world, or a good shooter in the middle of a really long hot streak—will go a long way toward determining how long he lasts in the NBA Draft.

To a scout's eyes, Monk's jump shot is as pure as can be. He shoots with a quick release and unchanging mechanics on the move, coming off of screens, from a standstill when spotting up, and when creating off the the dribble. He gets great elevation, and his shot works in a variety of situations. Again, his effectiveness against taller, stronger, more athletic NBA defenders is a concern. But Monk is only 19 years old, and there's reason to believe he'll improve as he ages.

Statistically speaking, however, a sample size of 170 3-point shots over 22 college games doesn't inspire a ton of confidence. Prior to draft day, NBA teams will get a chance to see the rest of his Kentucky season, and also have him in for workouts. By then, they'll have a better feel for just how good he really is—but they won't know for sure, because a one-and-done data set of 30-40 NCAA games can create wonky, unrepresentative numbers.

If Monk had other NBA-level skills that seemed likely to translate beyond "pure bucket getter," none of this would be an issue. There are plenty of league players who bring value even when their shots waver. But when you're an undersized two guard who doesn't get to the rim, doesn't create for others, and doesn't defend? You better be able to put the ball in the basket.

There aren't many players like that who are worth a top-10 pick, and none of the ones in the NBA are really like Monk. Lou Williams is more crafty, and gets to the line. Monta Ellis is a slasher, not a shooter. Eric Gordon and C.J. McCollum got to the rim far more often thanks to more polished handles. Statistically, Monk's best comparable as an elite shooter and athlete who largely plays a perimeter game is probably J.R. Smith. But Smith stands 6-foot-6 and has long arms, making it easier for him to get his shot off without interference. Likewise, Monk is smaller than Ray Allen.

The NBA team that takes Monk will be wading into something of an unknown. He has a larger range of potential outcomes than any other top-level player in the upcoming draft: probable superstar if his historic shooting levels hold; likely bench scorer if they don't. The margin of difference between those outcomes is razor thin, but also massive in terms of value. In the end, he looks like the sort of player who gets brought up when a general manager gets fired. It will be up to Monk to make sure that future front office casualty is someone who passed on him, and not someone who didn't.

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