Aaron Sanchez Debate Roars on, but No One Knows What's Best for Him

This was Ross Atkins's first foray into the frenzy of the trade deadline as a general manager, and had the circumstances been different, he probably would have reaped rave reviews. He bolstered the Blue Jays' beleaguered bullpen, jettisoned a writhing reliever, plowed cash into a trade for a veteran starter and picked up two prospects to boot.

But this is the year when every Blue Jays debate leads back to Aaron Sanchez. So when Atkins declared that those moves made his team "incrementally better," many armchair critics groaned. How could the Jays be better after deciding, once and for all, to dispatch a Cy Young candidate to the bullpen in the midst of a pennant race?

Atkins had been coy in recent weeks when asked about specific plans for Sanchez, who sports an 11-1 record, a league-leading 2.71 ERA and a career-high innings total four months into the season. It is hardly surprising that the club's plans have not changed since spring training, when they announced they would protect the hard-throwing right-hander by sending him back to the bullpen sometime after the all-star break.

Monday's acquisition of starter Francisco Liriano from Pittsburgh enabled the Jays to set that decision in stone.

"We're still working through the timing of it, but this (trade) allows us to do that," Atkins said in a conference call with reporters.

He implied that they would have done it anyway, sometime, even without Liriano.

"We didn't know this was concrete," he said. "What we did decide, before the deadline, we felt like the best chance for us to win a World Series is if Sanchez was a part of the team. So we felt like the best odds of Aaron Sanchez being a part of the team was, at some point, (to) transition to the bullpen. With that in mind, we considered alternatives and now we have the option to do that."

On Sunday, a month after his 24th birthday, Sanchez punched through his previous ceiling of 133.1 innings. His trademark sinker is averaging 95.4 mph. He is fifth in the league in innings pitched. He has been remarkably efficient with his pitches. His WAR is 3.5, according to Baseball Reference. Of his 21 starts, only two have been duds.

No proof exists to show that limiting the increase in a pitcher's innings total, season over season, will protect him against injury. Studies show no correlation.

But every pitcher is unique—in body type, delivery stress and the pitch repertoire that forms muscle memory. Sanchez throws harder than most. He might benefit from the switch.

The Jays have opted for caution. Their new "high-performance" staff has the expertise and technology to generate data the club has not had before, and they have monitored Sanchez every step of the way. Whatever they have learned has not changed their minds about that pre-season pronouncement.

In fact, no one knows for certain whether the Jays' plan will shield Sanchez in the short or long term. If injury awaits, it could strike in the first inning of a start or the eighth inning in a setup role. And if that should happens, no one will know for sure whether the other option would have made a difference.

However, social media discourse suggests that many fans are convinced the proper path is clear. It's not about keeping Sanchez healthy for the long term. It's about the team winning now. Let the chips fall where they may.

Deadline day unfolded in promising fashion for the Jays. Among the usual rumours from the usual anonymous sources, the strongest focused on a potential deal for Minnesota starter Ervin Santana. Given a no-strings choice, the Jays would certainly have preferred Santana (3.66 ERA) to Liriano (5.46), but the cost in prospect capital would have been prohibitive. "There was nothing progressing that way," Atkins said.

He added that he had 19 starters on his priority list. Due diligence started two months ago. Another list included just about every reliever available.

One was Houston veteran Scott Feldman, whom the Jays acquired in a trade for Guadalupe Chavez, an 18-year-old pitcher at the bottom of the food chain in the Gulf Coast League. He will take on the middle-relief role previously filled by the beleaguered Jesse Chavez, who was dispatched to the Dodgers in a trade for pitcher Mike Bolsinger, now a Buffalo Bison until further notice.

At one minute before the 4 PM deadline, Atkins sealed his final deal of the day, trading Drew Hutchison to Pittsburgh for Liriano and two of the Pirates' top prospects.

Liriano, 32, is making $13.67 million this year and next. After three fine seasons in Pittsburgh, he is having a bad one.

Toronto's Russ Martin was Liriano's catcher in 2013, his best year with the Pirates. Atkins is banking on Liriano making a "correction" in that direction, with Martin's experience a plus.

"We're hopeful that if we get him back to just close to where he was, then it's better than our alternative," Atkins said.

Their alternative, clearly, was not Aaron Sanchez.

On Sunday, according to the number-crunchers at Brooks Baseball, the average velocity on Sanchez's sinker was 94.67, the lowest since his fourth start of the season in April. That might be significant only if you consider that it has been slipping, in tiny decrements, since the end of June.

But 94.67 with late movement will still get a pitcher a lot of outs. And Sanchez, who gained 20 pounds of muscle in a carefully supervised off-season conditioning regimen, said Sunday he is not tired. Even if he were, he would be loath to admit it publicly, of course.

So after lowering his ERA on Sunday, he got the news on Monday that Liriano was coming to take his place. Sanchez will make his next scheduled start on Friday. After that, the deep thinkers will decide next steps, but Atkins made it clear that Sanchez will soon reprise the setup role he handled with aplomb during the stretch run last season.

Since May 31, Atkins has added Jason Grilli, Joaquin Benoit and Feldman to the bullpen, dumping the underachieving Chavez and Drew Storen in the process. The presumption is that adding Sanchez will complete the conversion of the bullpen from liability to asset.

Meanwhile, the Jays are rolling the dice on another presumptive transformation—that of Liriano to the pitcher he was from 2013 through 2015, when he posted a 3.26 ERA in 86 starts.

"We feel that (he) gives us a chance to have someone that could be pitching in Game 2 or 3 or 4 of a World Series run," Atkins said.

Given recent evidence, that would seem a long shot. Perhaps Liriano can make that "correction" Atkins mentioned. Perhaps it will be sufficient to compensate for the departure of Sanchez to the bullpen. Perhaps it will conquer the skepticism—in the clubhouse and the fan base—over moving a No. 1 starter to the bullpen for the stretch run.

Give Atkins and company credit for guts, for taking emotion out of a tough decision. This is a grand experiment for which there is no precedent. For it to work in the short term, Liriano must turn back the clock.

As for Sanchez, Josh Donaldson put it best after Monday night's loss in Houston: "Nobody knows what's best for Aaron Sanchez. I don't know. He doesn't know."

Neither, with any certainty, does the front office. Nor do the fans, including those who would happily let him play a game of chicken with his future.